Forecasting Travel Time Reliability in Road Transport: A new Model for The Netherlands

Marco Kouwenhoven and Pim Warffemius
Additional contact information
Marco Kouwenhoven: Significance
Pim Warffemius: Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis

No 2016/02, International Transport Forum Discussion Papers from OECD Publishing

Abstract: In this paper we describe how we included travel time variability in the national Dutch transport forecasting model and what the policy impacts of this new forecasting tool are. Until now, travel time reliability improvements for road projects were included in Dutch cost-benefit analysis (CBA) by multiplying the travel time benefits from reduced congestion by a factor 1.25. This proportionality is based on the linkage between congestion reduction and reliability improvements. However, this treatment of reliability is not useful to evaluate policies that especially affect travel time variability. From the start, this method was provisional and meant to be replaced by a better method capturing travel time variability. For this, we derived an empirical relation between the standard deviation of travel time, mean delay of travel time and length of route. This has been implemented in the national Dutch model as a post processing module. The new travel time reliability forecasting model will be incorporated in the Dutch guidelines for CBA.

Date: 2016-02-23
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1787/3ae9c057-en (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oec:itfaab:2016/02-en

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in International Transport Forum Discussion Papers from OECD Publishing Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).