The use of short-term indicators and survey data for predicting turning points in economic activity: A performance analysis of the OECD system of CLIs during the Great Recession

Roberto Astolfi (), Michela Gamba, Emmanuelle Guidetti and Pierre-Alain Pionnier
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Michela Gamba: OECD
Emmanuelle Guidetti: OECD
Pierre-Alain Pionnier: OECD

No 2016/8, OECD Statistics Working Papers from OECD Publishing

Abstract: After reviewing the main features of the statistics available in the MEI to inform policy makers, this paper discusses the performance of the CLIs during the Great Recession. This performance is assessed using both ex-post and real-time analyses. The analyses evaluate the ability of the OECD CLIs to anticipate the peak and the subsequent trough of the Great Recession in G7 countries, and the extent to which the initial signal has been maintained over time. Après un examen des principales caractéristiques des statistiques disponibles dans les PIE, ce document évalue la performance des Indicateurs Composites Avancés de l’OCDE pendant la Grande Récession. Des analyses ex-post et en temps réel sont menées pour apprécier la capacité de ces indicateurs à anticiper le pic et le creux de la Grande Récession dans les pays du G7, ainsi que la stabilité dans le temps des points de retournement détectés.

Date: 2016-05-25
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec and nep-mac
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oec:stdaaa:2016/8-en

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