Challenges to international trade and the global economy: Recovery from COVID-19 and Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine

Christine Arriola, Charles Cadestin, Przemyslaw Kowalski, Joaquim Guilhoto, Sébastien Miroudot and Frank van Tongeren

No 265, OECD Trade Policy Papers from OECD Publishing

Abstract: Amidst the recovery from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has resulted in new challenges to the global economy and to international trade. This report relies on detailed trade data to assess the impact of these two overlapping shocks on international trade and supply chains. In February 2022, global trade was approaching pre-Covid levels in absolute terms, but with a different product and geographical composition resulting in a continued sense of tension in the trading system. Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has added a new dimension of challenges as it has led to deliberate radical interruptions of trade linkages between Russia, Ukraine and many industrialised economies, with significant repercussions on prices of key commodities in the energy and agricultural sectors.

Keywords: AMNE; General Equilibrium Model; ICIO analysis; Oil (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C67 C68 F14 F17 F5 Q48 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-01-20
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-ene, nep-int and nep-tra
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oec:traaab:265-en

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