Lithuania’s trade dependencies

Przemyslaw Kowalski and Orlando Bates

No 299, OECD Trade Policy Papers from OECD Publishing

Abstract: This paper examines Lithuania’s trade dependencies and their role in shaping the country’s exposure and resilience to episodes of economic coercion, with a focus on China’s trade restrictions imposed after Lithuania opened a representative office of Chinese Taipei in 2021. Using detailed bilateral trade data covering more than 5 000 products and 230 partners over 1997–2024, this paper documents the historical evolution of Lithuania’s trade structure and explores how concentration and diversification patterns influence vulnerability to external shocks. Descriptive and econometric analyses reveal that Lithuania’s relatively low dependence on China and its diversified export base mitigated the overall impact of Chinese trade coercion. Product-level evidence from the laser and peat industries highlights how lower trade concentration supports both robustness and recovery in the face of disruption. The findings underscore the importance of monitoring trade dependency and concentration as key indicators for economic resilience and de-risking policy design.

Keywords: Bilateral trade; Economic coercion; Export concentration; Resilience; Sanctions; Trade diversification (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F14 F51 F52 F63 O52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-12-03
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oec:traaab:299-en

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in OECD Trade Policy Papers from OECD Publishing Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().