EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

How effective has been the Spanish lockdown to battle COVID-19? A spatial analysis of the coronavirus propagation across provinces

Luis Orea () and Inmaculada Álvarez ()

No 2020/02, Efficiency Series Papers from University of Oviedo, Department of Economics, Oviedo Efficiency Group (OEG)

Abstract: This paper assesses the effectiveness of the Spanish lockdown of population on March 14th to battle the COVID-19 propagation, as well as the effect of bringing forward the date of this public intervention. We test not only whether the lockdown (and othercontrol measures) has prevented local contagion of the virus, but also whether it has prevented the inter-province spread of COVID-19. We find a drastic reduction in the propagation of coronavirus across the Spanish provinces since March 14th, indicating that the lockdown has been quite effective in preventing the between-province spread of the coronavirus. Regarding the propagation of the virus within each province, we find a significant contraction in the rates of growth of coronavirus cases (5.8% on average) attributed to the lockdown. A first counterfactual exercise shows that the lockdown implemented on March 14 has reduced the number of potential COVID-19 cases by 79.5%. The largest reductions in coronavirus cases are found in provinces that are either close to the epicentres of the coronavirus or adjacent to provinces with more advanced epidemics. A second counterfactual exercise shows, however, that the number of coronavirus cases would have been reduced by an additional 12.8% if the lockdown had been brought forward to March 7th, a reduction that likely would have prevented the collapse of many hospitals in Spain.

Pages: 30
Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eur and nep-geo
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.unioviedo.es/oeg/ESP/esp_2020_02.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: How effective has been the Spanish lockdown to battle COVID-19? A spatial analysis of the coronavirus propagation across provinces (2020) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oeg:wpaper:2020/02

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Efficiency Series Papers from University of Oviedo, Department of Economics, Oviedo Efficiency Group (OEG) Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Economía y Empresa, Universidad de Oviedo, Avenida del Cristo, s/n. 33006 Oviedo - SPAIN. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Luis Orea ().

 
Page updated 2020-11-20
Handle: RePEc:oeg:wpaper:2020/02