Estimation of Future Cases of Dementia from Those Born in 2015

Fraser Lewis

Contract Research from Office of Health Economics

Abstract: The estimates of future cases of dementia are a result of work commissioned by Alzheimer’s Research UK. The estimates were based on three components: estimates of how many people born in 2015 will survive to a given age; age and sex specific estimates of the incidence of dementia;an epidemiological model capable of measuring the flow of people between non-dementia and dementia, while mimicking overall population dynamics consistent with survival data. Data was collected from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the Cognitive Function & Ageing Study (CFAS I), and an epidemiological model was built.The model calculated that:27% of males born in 2015 in the UK will develop dementia;37% of females born in 2015 in the UK will develop dementia;32% of people born in 2015 in the UK will develop dementia.

Keywords: Estimation; of; Future; Cases; of; Dementia; from; Those; Born; in; 2015 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-10-01
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ohe:conres:001645

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