Adaptive Learning with a Unit Root: An Application to the Current Account

Ronald Davies and Paul Shea ()

University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers from University of Oregon Economics Department

Abstract: This paper develops a simple two-country, two-good model of international trade and borrowing that suppresses all previous sources of current account dynamics. Under rational expectations, international debt follows a random walk. Under adaptive learning however, international debt behaves like either a stationary or an explosive process. Whether debt converges or diverges depends on the specific learning algorithm that agents employ. When debt diverges, a financial crisis eventually occurs to ensure that the modelÂ’s transversality condition holds. Such a financial crisis causes an abrupt decrease in the debtor countryÂ’s consumption and utility.

Keywords: current account; international debt movements; expectations; adaptive learning. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D83 D84 F11 F32 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 40
Date: 2003-04-10, Revised 2003-06-10
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http://economics.uoregon.edu/papers/UO-2006-15_Davies_Unit.pdf (application/pdf)

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Journal Article: Adaptive learning with a unit root: An application to the current account (2010)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ore:uoecwp:2006-15

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