Economics at your fingertips  

Tornado damage ratings estimated with cumulative logistic regression

James B. Elsner and Zoe Schroder

No k9wv6, EarthArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: Empirical studies have led to improvements in evaluating and quantifying the tornado threat. However more work is needed to put the research onto a solid statistical foundation. Here the authors begin to build this foundation by introducing and then demonstrating a statistical model to estimate damage rating probabilities. A goal is to alert researchers to available statistical technology for improving severe weather warnings. The model is cumulative logistic regression and the parameters are determined using Bayesian inference. The model is demonstrated by estimating damage rating probabilities from values of known environmental factors on days with many tornadoes in the United States. Controlling for distance-to-nearest town/city, which serves as a proxy variable for damage target density, the model quantifies the chance that a particular tornado will be assigned any damage rating given specific environmental conditions. Under otherwise average conditions the model estimates a 65% chance that a tornado occurring in a city or town will be rated EF0 when bulk shear is weak (10 m/s). This probability drops to 38% when the bulk shear is strong (40 m/s). The model quantifies the corresponding increases in the chance of the same tornado receiving higher damage ratings. Quantifying changes to the probability distribution on the ordered damage rating categories is a natural application of cumulative logistic regression.

New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env and nep-rmg
Date: 2019-07-18
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

DOI: 10.31219/

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in EarthArXiv from Center for Open Science
Bibliographic data for series maintained by OSF ().

Page updated 2020-01-17
Handle: RePEc:osf:eartha:k9wv6