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Evaluating the decadal-to-centennial evolution of a new proxy-based NAO reconstruction during the Common Era

Armand Hernández, Sánchez-López, Guiomar, Pla-Rabes, Sergi, Comas-Bru, Laia, Andrew Parnell, Niamh Cahill, Adelina Geyer, Ricardo M Trigo and Santiago Giralt
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Comas-Bru, Laia: University of Reading

No p7ft6, EarthArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the major atmospheric mode ruling European climate variability during winter and its significance is underpinned by the number of recent studies aimed at reconstructing past NAO variability across different time scales and temporal resolutions. We present a new 2000-year multi-annual, proxy-based, local NAO impact reconstruction, with associated uncertainties, employing a Bayesian approach. This new local NAO reconstruction is focused on the Iberian Peninsula, a geographical area not included in previous NAO reconstructions despite being a widely used region for instrumental-based NAO measurements. We also assess the main forcing drivers in order to unveil any discrepancies with previously published NAO reconstructions. Results show that, on a decadal scale, a low number of sunspots correlate to low NAO values. The comparison with other previously published NAO reconstructions allows us to observe the variability of solar influence on the NAO across a latitudinal gradient according to the position of the employed archives. Moreover, we highlight the potential role of other North Atlantic modes of variability (i.e., East Atlantic pattern) on the non-stationary behaviour of the NAO through the Common Era, likely via solar impact.

New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env
Date: 2019-11-27
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DOI: 10.31219/

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