Where the Talent Goes: Field, Credential, and the Geography of Graduate Retention

Agelo Thalassinidis and Lance Bowen

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Abstract: States invest heavily in producing technical graduates, yet the graduates most valued by an innovation economy are the ones least likely to stay; this study tests whether that pattern holds across credential levels, using an independent source as corroboration. Retention loss is measured by field and credential using Census Post-Secondary Employment Outcomes (PSEO) records for 35 states, corroborated by six years of IRS Statistics of Income migration data for young adults. Within almost every state, portable technical fields retain fewer graduates than the state’s own average. Nationally, 63.3 percent of bachelor’s technical graduates work in-state one year after graduation, against 80.1 percent in place-bound anchor fields such as education and health. The technical penalty is positive in 33 of 34 states and is unrelated to how well a state retains graduates overall. Associate graduates retain at higher rates (84.8 percent across fields, 76.6 percent in technical fields) and lose almost none of that hold by year five; capture and durable hold are statistically independent at both credential levels. In IRS data, 34 of the 50 states lose under-26 filers on net, including 10 that grow overall, and states gaining young adults retain more of their own bachelor’s technical graduates. The pattern fits a demand-side account: graduates with nationally portable skills leave states lacking the demand to hold them, and producing more graduates does not change that. Community colleges hold their graduates, but the hold reflects who enrolls, not any limit of the credential.

Date: 2026-10-12
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:edarxi:gwfpx_v1

DOI: 10.35542/osf.io/gwfpx_v1

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