Educational Fragility, Border Instability and Scientific Continuity Across BRICS-Adjacent Conflict Corridors (2023–2026)

Savio Vogt

No ne5xw_v1, EdArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: Educational fragility emerged during 2023–2026 as one of the least examined yet most consequential structural risks shaping geopolitical continuity across BRICS‑adjacent regions (UNESCO, 2025; UNDP, 2025). Border volatility, institutional fragmentation, scientific migration acceleration, infrastructural asymmetry, and prolonged conflict exposure increasingly altered the continuity capacity of educational systems in South Asia, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, the Indo‑Pacific, and selected African scientific corridors (SIPRI, 2025; World Bank, 2026). Conventional geopolitical analysis prioritizes military escalation, sanctions, infrastructure, and territorial confrontation while devoting far less attention to the educational systems responsible for reproducing scientific labour, institutional resilience, and long‑duration technological continuity (ORF, 2025; Cambridge Systems Resilience, 2025). Educational continuity rarely collapses instantaneously; fragility accumulates through repeated instability exposure, scientific displacement, mentorship interruption, institutional concentration, and cumulative workforce asymmetry beneath visible developmental expansion (UNESCO Science Report, 2025). Drawing upon real‑time datasets between 2023 and 2026—including UNESCO continuity reports, OECD mobility indicators, World Bank fragility datasets, SIPRI instability indices, AISHE statistics, UDISE+ frontier indicators, observatory continuity reports, and scientific workforce assessments—this paper develops a Fisher–AM fragility framework to examine how repeated geopolitical instability reshapes scientific continuity across BRICS‑adjacent educational systems (OECD, 2025; UNDP, 2025). The analysis argues that future geopolitical resilience may depend increasingly upon whether educational systems retain continuity‑oriented stabilization capacity under prolonged instability. States may preserve visible institutional infrastructure while gradually losing scientific continuity through repeated educational disruption beneath surface‑level developmental indicators (Nature Careers, 2025; UNESCO Science Report, 2025). Educational fragility may therefore become one of the deepest long‑duration drivers of geopolitical asymmetry. Building upon the broader Scale Regulated Aggregation (SRA) framework, this paper introduces an AM‑Regulated Conflict Educational Continuity model proposing distributed scientific mentorship systems, adaptive frontier stabilization, observatory‑linked STEM continuity corridors, and regional institutional resilience architectures designed for prolonged geopolitical instability rather than idealized developmental stability assumptions (IAU, 2025; UNDP, 2025).

Date: 2026-06-03
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:edarxi:ne5xw_v1

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/ne5xw_v1

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