From Stabilisation to Strategic Sovereignty: Zambia’s New Development Order under President Hakainde Hichilema

Robyn Kawimbe

No hy8s7_v1, LawArchive from Center for Open Science

Abstract: Since the election of President Hakainde Hichilema in August 2021, Zambia has undertaken a substantial programme of macroeconomic stabilisation, sovereign debt restructuring, institutional reform, energy diversification and renewed investment in the mining sector. This article examines whether these developments amount to more than a conventional economic recovery and instead represent the emergence of a new developmental order centred upon fiscal discipline, productive capacity, energy security, strategic mineral governance and institutional inclusion. The article adopts a qualitative political-economy methodology combining documentary analysis of Zambian legislation and government policy with evidence from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, African Development Bank (AfDB), Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC), ZESCO, Parliament of Zambia and major mining-sector actors. It employs a theoretical framework combining developmental-state theory, state-capacity theory and the concept of strategic economic sovereignty. The analysis finds that Zambia has made demonstrable progress in restoring macroeconomic stability. Inflation returned to the Bank of Zambia's target range in April 2026, international reserves increased substantially, fiscal consolidation progressed and Zambia reached agreements covering most of the external-debt restructuring perimeter. In May 2026, the Government announced a further debt-for-energy transaction involving approximately US$1.365 billion of sovereign notes and a US$600 million African Development Bank facility, linking debt management directly to national grid resilience. The article further examines Zambia's attempt to convert its copper endowment into a foundation for industrial development, including greater domestic processing and value addition, alongside substantial investment in solar generation and electricity infrastructure. Constitutional and institutional reforms designed to strengthen representation of women, youth and persons with disabilities are considered as components of a broader conception of state legitimacy. Anti-corruption initiatives and access-to-information reforms are similarly analysed as mechanisms of institutional accountability. The article nevertheless cautions against equating macroeconomic improvement with completed development. Poverty, inequality, electricity insecurity, commodity dependence, unemployment and corruption risks remain significant. The article concludes that Zambia's principal achievement under the Hichilema administration is best understood not as the completion of national transformation but as the construction of an institutional and macroeconomic platform from which transformation may become possible. Zambia's experience consequently offers lessons for resource-rich developing states seeking to reconcile debt sustainability, critical-mineral development, renewable energy, international investment and national economic sovereignty.

Date: 2026-08-16
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:lawarc:hy8s7_v1

DOI: 10.31228/osf.io/hy8s7_v1

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