Current urban development and future urban water deficit: How centrality and maturity affect predicted droughts?

Thomas Bolognesi, Laura Turley and Tanya Heikkila

No gxfqh, OSF Preprints from Center for Open Science

Abstract: Cities face the risk of water deficits. This risk involves substantial costs and damages that impair water access, biodiversity, public health, education and business. Consequently, comparative research is growing to understand urban water deficit risks and to derive policy lessons that can limit the vulnerability of large population centres. So far, this body of the literature has mostly focused on short term analysis (<10 years) and emphasized particular policy instruments to cope with shocks while neglecting the role of socio-economic contexts. We intend to fill this gap by questioning how current urban structural characteristics affect future urban water deficits. We combine indicators of cities’ centrality and maturity in 2010 with the likelihood and magnitude of cities’ water deficits between 2050 and 2070. The dataset covers 235 of the 595 cities over 750 000 inhabitants in 2010. We show that urban centrality and maturity are negatively associated with future urban deficit, as these two characteristics enable cities to attract political, technical, and economic resources to fuel their development. Further, we depict the non-linearity of these relationships. Whereas management responses and strategies may impact short-term water deficits in cities, we argue for the role of urban structural factors in shaping future water deficits.

Date: 2020-02-27
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://osf.io/download/5e57e963ef5d8900ac06d836/

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:osfxxx:gxfqh

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/gxfqh

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in OSF Preprints from Center for Open Science
Bibliographic data for series maintained by OSF (contact@cos.io).