A Comparative Assessment of Murder Counts Pre, During and Post-COVID-19 Restriction In Trinidad And Tobago (working paper)

Troy Emilio PhD Smith

No h28be, OSF Preprints from Center for Open Science

Abstract: Stringency measures associated with governmental responses to COVID-19 have reportedly had varying effects on crime. As countries worldwide continue to remove restrictions there is concern related to post-COVID-19 restriction crime patterns. This study specifically examines the change in murder counts in Trinidad and Tobago pre, during and post-COVID-19 restrictions. Tie series analysis was used to assess non-linear trends and seasonality, while Date Time Warping was used to assess similarity between time periods. The results suggest that murder counts did decrease substantial during COVI-19 with 2020 having the lowest average murder count in a 8 year period. However, murder count have return to pre-COVID-19 levels in 2022, with all restrictions having been left in November 2021. It was concluded that while the exogenous shock caused by COVID-19 did decrease murders the effect was temporary. The removal of the treatment led to a return to the previous state of murders.

Date: 2022-08-14
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:osfxxx:h28be

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/h28be

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