Dynamics between Vietnamese real consumption and economic growth

, Aisdl

No jqu3x, OSF Preprints from Center for Open Science

Abstract: This article uses recent developments in econometric techniques to examine the consumption-led growth hypothesis for Vietnam from 1990–2012. The Granger-causality tests were based on two testing approaches: the vector error correction modeling approach outlined in Toda and Philips, and the augmented level VAR modeling with integrated and cointegrated processes (of arbitrary orders) separately introduced by Toda and Yamamoto (1993) and Dolado and Lütkepohl (1996). Empirical results reveal the mutual exogeneity between the Vietnamese real consumption and GDP growth. This exogeneity poses great challenges for the Vietnamese policymakers who must rebalance their transitional economy. This change, necessitated by recent crises in the international economic landscape, necessitates a shift in the Vietnamese economy from an export-led growth economy to a more inclusive, services-oriented, and consumer-based.

Date: 2015-03-29
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:osfxxx:jqu3x

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/jqu3x

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