Entropic Suppression for Rain Nucleation and Drizzle Prediction

Dustyn Stanley

No nm7tb_v1, OSF Preprints from Center for Open Science

Abstract: We develop a first-principles entropic suppression framework for droplet nucleation in clouds, unifying homogeneous, heterogeneous, and ice-phase pathways under a single suppression-potential formalism. We derive a continuum functional S[ρ_v, φ] whose saddle yields classical critical radii and free-energy barriers ΔG(r_c). By solving the associated Euler–Lagrange equations, we compute dimensionless barriers S*(S) and fluctuation-prefactors A, forming the nucleation rate: J(S) = A · exp[–S*(S)] Embedding J(S) into a 1D parcel model and 3D large-eddy simulation (LES) microphysics shows substantial improvements in drizzle onset timing and precipitation bias compared to classical Kelvin-based kernels.

Date: 2025-05-16
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:osfxxx:nm7tb_v1

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/nm7tb_v1

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