Contingency of Structures: Triggers and the Social Geography of Revolutionary Episodes in Iran 2017-2022

Mohammad Ali Kadivar, Saber Khani, Danial Vahabli, Vahid Abedini and Samira Barzin
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Danial Vahabli: Stony Brook University

No 2y478_v1, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: What drives the uneven geographic spread of revolutionary episodes? While structural approaches emphasize pre-existing fault lines, contingency approaches highlight emergent processes. We synthesize these perspectives, arguing that specific triggers shape a revolutionary episode’s social geography by activating certain fault lines while leaving others dormant. Through a comparative analysis of three revolutionary episodes in Iran (2017–2022), each with a distinct trigger, we demonstrate how different triggers shape patterns of contention. Using event-history and spatial regression analysis of subnational protest data alongside socioeconomic and political variables, we show that a fuel price hike activated grievances in oil-producing areas, while a repressive event targeting a woman from an ethnic and religious minority mobilized protests in minority-populated districts. Our findings illustrate how triggers structure revolutionary mobilization, offering broader insights into the interaction between structural conditions and contingent events in contentious politics.

Date: 2025-11-29
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:2y478_v1

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/2y478_v1

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