Social Exclusion, Institutional Support and the Perceived Criminal Involvement of Waste Pickers: Evidence from a Stakeholder Survey in Rawalpindi–Islamabad, Pakistan

Rabail Ghazanfar

No 3y49g_v1, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: Informal waste pickers (rag-pickers) are among the most marginalised urban groups in Pakistan, yet they are often linked in public debate to petty crime, substance use and sex work. This study surveys 300 frontline stakeholders (78 police personnel, 175 NGO staff and 47 other residents) in Rawalpindi and Islamabad to examine which offences they attribute to waste pickers and how these perceptions relate to perceived social exclusion and perceived support from government and NGOs. Substance use (80%) and prostitution (79%) were the offences most often attributed; murder rarely (5%). Perceived social exclusion was strongly associated with perceived criminal involvement (r = .73, p < .001), while perceived institutional support showed a weak negative association (r = -.17, p = .004). In a regression model (R2 = .53), exclusion was the only significant predictor (beta = .75); the association of support with criminal involvement operated indirectly through lower exclusion (indirect effect = -.23, Sobel z = -5.27, p < .001). The findings suggest that support reduces perceived criminality only insofar as it reduces exclusion, and argue for inclusion-oriented policy: integrating waste pickers into municipal waste systems, making social protection reachable, and protective rather than extractive policing. Based on the author's MPhil thesis (National Defence University, Islamabad, 2020).

Date: 2026-09-30
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:3y49g_v1

DOI: 10.31235/osf.io/3y49g_v1

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