SITUATION REPORT: IRAN CONFLICT DIGITAL TRACE DATA ANALYSIS - EXPERIMENTAL

Francisco Rowe, Carmen Cabrera, Elisabetta Pietrostefani, Andrea Nasuto and Emiliano Beltran
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Francisco Rowe: University of Liverpool
Carmen Cabrera: University of Liverpool
Andrea Nasuto: University of Liverpool

No 4s7ve_v1, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: Conventional data sources to monitor population displacement in Iran following the outbreak of war on 28 February 2026 are limited due to existing sanctions, active hostilities, information controls and restricted humanitarian access. This situation report uses digital trace data as an alternative way to measure likely population dynamics in near real time during the reporting period. We leverage Cloudflare HTTPS request data as the main proxy for relative changes in population presence at the provincial level. Despite Internet blackouts, Cloudflare HTTPS request data can still provide informative signals of population activity because these blackouts rarely affect the entire network all at once. Small levels of external connectivity often persist through selected networks, partial routing or brief restoration periods, and fundamental services such as banking and medical services remain in operation. Our Cloudflare-based estimates capture relative shifts in population presence across provinces - not flows or absolute counts. Readers are strongly encouraged to consult the caveats before interpreting findings. We assessed and validated the patterns from our Cloudflare-based estimates against Farsi Wikipedia pageviews and Iran Strike Map event data. Our Cloudflare-based estimates display a clear geographic pattern and evolution of displacement as the conflict evolves. They indicate early displacement towards border provinces near Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan, with later concentration in North-central and Eastern provinces — complementing IOM DTM cross-border data recording approximately 40,000 departures between 3 and 10 March, primarily to Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkey and Azerbaijan. A more complete analysis will follow in a subsequent report.

Date: 2026-03-30
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:4s7ve_v1

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/4s7ve_v1

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