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Is the recent increase in national homicide abnormal? Testing the application of fan charts in monitoring national homicide trends over time

Ha-Neul Yim, Jordan R. Riddell and Andrew Palmer Wheeler
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Ha-Neul Yim: The University of Texas at Dallas
Andrew Palmer Wheeler: University of Texas at Dallas

No 7g32n, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: Objective: The goal of this study is to compare the increase in the 2015 national homicide rate to the historical data series and other violent crime rate changes. Methods: We use ARIMA models and a one-step ahead forecasting technique to predict national homicide, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault rates in the United States. Annual Uniform Crime Report data published by the Federal Bureau of Investigation are used in our analysis. Results: The 2015 homicide rate increased above the conservative prediction interval of our model, but no other violent crime increased substantially. Conclusions: Our findings concur with previous research that the national homicide rate spiked in 2015, significantly increasing from 2014, though data for 2016 – 2018 do not show a continued anomalous increase in the U.S. homicide rate. Future studies should incorporate structural variables in multivariate prediction models to examine crime trends. Data and code to replicate the findings can be downloaded from

Date: 2019-11-04
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DOI: 10.31219/

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