Security Threats and Support for the Far Right: Evidence from Russian Aggression in Europe

Ala Alrababah, Catherine Eunice De Vries and Rachel Myrick
Additional contact information
Catherine Eunice De Vries: Bocconi University
Rachel Myrick: Duke University

No 9m4jf_v1, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: Do external security threats reduce support for far-right parties? Existing scholarship suggests such threats should weaken extreme parties by generating rally effects, shifting attention to foreign policy, and increasing demand for experienced leadership. We develop a theoretical framework distinguishing these channels and test them in the context of Russian aggression in Europe. In Study 1, leveraging an unexpected event during survey fieldwork in the European Social Survey, we find no evidence that Russia's invasion of Ukraine reduced support for far-right parties. In Study 2, a pre-registered survey experiment in Germany, we expose respondents to a scenario of US withdrawal from NATO and a Russian invasion of an EU member state. Threats increase demand for competent leadership and boost incumbent support by about 4 points, but do not reduce far-right support, which proves remarkably sticky. Together, these findings show that security shocks can reshape mainstream competition without eroding far-right support.

Date: 2026-07-22
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://osf.io/download/6a6112461ee4625034a322f2/

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:9m4jf_v1

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/9m4jf_v1

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in SocArXiv from Center for Open Science
Bibliographic data for series maintained by OSF ().