The shape of NSF openness to newcomers: same share, fewer doors

Jingwen Zhang, Hengyi Fu and Haining Wang
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Haining Wang: Indiana University School of Medicine

No 9qpb7_v1, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: Openness to new investigators is often judged by the share of awards to principal investigators (PIs) without recent funding. We examine it in fiscal year (FY) 2026, when the US National Science Foundation (NSF) made the fewest new grants in four decades. NSF made 30% fewer new research projects than in FY2025, and the number of funded PIs with no NSF award as PI in the previous decade (newcomers) fell nearly as much, yet their share of new projects barely moved (34.5% to 34.3%). CAREER, NSF's main early-career award, added 3.3 percentage points to the newcomer share, offsetting the closure of three early-career programs reserved for institutions outside the Carnegie R1 tier (−3.0 points). The stable share hid a narrowing of reach. Where those programs closed, newcomers fell by 13% at R1 universities and by 66% at institutions below R2, whereas in engineering, which kept its program, newcomers below R2 rose. CAREER's growth went to institutions with more prior NSF projects, and NSF's grant obligations to institutions below R2 fell by 44%, twice the fall at R1 universities, with no offset from other federal research agencies. Per dollar, the closed programs had produced more papers than CAREER or standard grants.

Date: 2026-10-03
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:9qpb7_v1

DOI: 10.31235/osf.io/9qpb7_v1

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