Die Zukunft der Sexarbeit. Rechtsmodelle, Plattformökonomie und Arbeitsorganisation im internationalen Vergleich. Eine theoretische Synthese

Susanne Bleier Wilp

No df43j_v1, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: This paper develops a theoretical synthesis of the future of sex work along three interlocking axes: legal governance models, platformisation, and labour organisation. Drawing exclusively on peer-reviewed research and methodologically transparent evaluations - including the systematic review by Platt et al. (2018), the Lancet series on HIV and sex work (Shannon et al. 2015), the New Zealand evaluation literature following the Prostitution Reform Act 2003, the German federal evaluation of the Prostituiertenschutzgesetz (KFN 2025), and emerging implementation research on Belgium's 2024 labour law framework - it argues that the future of sex work will be decided less in criminal law than in labour law and digital infrastructure. The paper identifies a structural paradox: while the epidemiological and criminological evidence increasingly supports decriminalisation and labour rights, the political momentum in Europe, reinforced by the European Parliament's 2023 resolution and the European Court of Human Rights' 2024 ruling on the French client criminalisation law, points in the opposite direction. Simultaneously, platform capitalism and financial infrastructure exercise a form of private, extraterritorial regulation - exemplified by FOSTA-SESTA's global chilling effects - that increasingly overrides national legal frameworks. Three scenarios for 2040 are developed: labour-law normalisation (the Belgian path), neo-abolitionist expansion, and platform-mediated informalisation. The paper concludes that the third scenario is currently the most probable default, and that only deliberate institutional design - of the kind pioneered in Belgium - can shift the trajectory.

Date: 2026-06-12
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:df43j_v1

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/df43j_v1

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