Do explosions shape voting behavior?

Juan Vargas, Miguel Purroy, Felipe Coy, Sergio Perilla and Mounu Prem

No dw9vn, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: Violence in conflict settings is seldom random, making its effects indistinguishable from the intentions of the perpetrator. We leverage on the quasi-randomness of accidental landmine explosions to study how violence shapes electoral outcomes in Colombia. We combine the geolocation of landmine blasts with the coordinates of voting polls in a regression discontinuity design that compares polls close to which a landmine exploded just before the election to those close to which it did just afterward. Blasts within a month from election day depress turnout by 23%. In addition, those who do vote penalize the democratic left for the explosions and are more likely to support political parties with ties with illegal paramilitary groups.

Date: 2022-07-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm and nep-pol
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:dw9vn

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/dw9vn

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