EXTENDING THEORIES OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE: SUBSYSTEM-DRIVEN INNOVATION FOR TECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEM MACROEVOLUTION

Mario Coccia

No f6qhc_v1, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: Forecasting technological trajectories requires understanding the mechanisms that accelerate systemic innovation. This study develops a macroevolutionary framework, positing that host technologies evolve through the microevolution of embedded subsystems. A longitudinal analysis of the iPhone (2007–2025) and Bluetooth technologies reveals that subsystem advancements consistently precede and enable major system-level innovations, with integration lags shrinking from three to one year—evidence of accelerating co-evolution. Subsystem improvements in camera resolution and display quality exhibit exponential growth, significantly shaping the macroevolution of smartphone capabilities. Hedonic pricing models further highlight battery life and display resolution as dominant drivers of innovation and market value. Theoretical implications include extending evolutionary models of technological change by identifying subsystem evolution as a fundamental mechanism of systemic progress. Managerial implications emphasize the strategic importance of aligning subsystem development with host technology integration to reduce innovation delays and sustain competitive advantage. This approach enhances technology forecasting and informs resource allocation in dynamic innovation ecosystems.

Date: 2025-12-05
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:f6qhc_v1

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/f6qhc_v1

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