Climate Change and Political Entry: Evidence from Brazilian Municipal Elections

Guilherme Natan Fasolin and António Valentim

No fp93g_v1, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: Does climate change affect who runs for office, and how? As extreme weather events intensify, they create social and economic challenges that likely impact political candidacy. We build on existing research on mass political participation and the political economy of candidate entry and test how extreme weather events affect candidate pools. Using a novel dataset of flooding events and mayoral candidates in Brazil (2000-2020), we employ a difference-in-differences design and find that floods reduce the education level of mayoral candidates. Using data on federal transfers, corruption audits, and surveys, we show the effects on education can be driven by rent-seeking and outside options. By shedding light on the effects of climate change on candidate selection, this study highlights how climate change can paradoxically increase the representation of underrepresented groups in politics.

Date: 2026-02-17
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:fp93g_v1

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/fp93g_v1

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