The MAGA Movement and Political Violence in 2024: Findings from a Nationally Representative Survey

Garen J. Wintemute, Bradley Velasquez, Sonia Robinson, Elizabeth A. Tomsich, Mona Wright and Aaron Shev

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Abstract: Background: The possibility of widespread political violence poses a serious concern for the United States. A nationally representative survey found in 2022 that “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) Republicans, as defined, were more supportive than others of political violence. This study updates and expands those findings; the principal comparison is between MAGA Republicans and non-MAGA non-Republicans. Methods: Findings are from Wave 3 of a nationally representative annual longitudinal survey of members of the Ipsos KnowledgePanel, conducted May 23-June 14, 2024. All respondents to prior waves who remained in KnowledgePanel were invited to participate. Political party and MAGA affiliations were reported by respondents. Outcomes are expressed as weighted proportions and adjusted prevalence differences (aPDs; these are percentage point (pp) differences), with p-values adjusted for the false discovery rate and reported as q-values. Results: The completion rate was 88.4%; there were 8896 respondents. After weighting, half the sample was female (50.9%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 49.5%, 52.3%); the weighted mean (SD) age was 48.5 (24.9) years. MAGA Republicans were substantially more likely than non-MAGA non-Republicans to endorse violence to effect sociopolitical change generally and to consider violence usually or always justified to advance at least 1 of 21 specific political objectives (MAGA Republicans, 55.9% (95% CI 52.3%, 59.4%); non-MAGA non-Republicans, 25.5% (95% CI 23.7%, 27.2%); aPD 30.1pp (95% CI 26.0pp, 34.2pp), q < 0.001). They were not more willing to commit political violence. Similarly, while MAGA Republicans more frequently predicted that they would be armed in a future setting where they considered political violence to be justified (very or extremely likely: MAGA Republicans, 19.8% (95% CI 17.0%, 22.6%); non-MAGA non-Republicans, 5.5% (95% CI 4.6%, 6.4%); aPD 16.4pp (95% CI 13.3pp, 19.5pp), q < 0.001), they were not more likely to shoot someone (very or extremely likely: MAGA Republicans, 2.1% (95% CI 0.8%, 3.4%); non-MAGA non-Republicans, 1.6% (95% CI 1.0%, 2.1%); aPD 1.5pp (95% CI -0.1pp, 3.0pp), q = 0.43). Prevalences for other Republicans generally fell between those for MAGA Republicans and non-MAGA non-Republicans. On some political violence measures, prevalences were highest among a small, demographically distinct group of non-Republican MAGA supporters. In secondary analyses, MAGA Republicans endorsed statements of beliefs associated with political violence—racism, hostile sexism, homonegativity, transphobia, xenophobia, and Islamophobia; support for the QAnon movement and Christian nationalism; conspiracism; trait aggression; and authoritarianism—more frequently than did non-MAGA non-Republicans. Conclusions: In 2024, MAGA Republicans were more likely than others to endorse political violence and beliefs associated with an increased risk of committing violence. They were not more willing to commit political violence themselves, but their endorsement may increase the risk that political violence will occur.

Date: 2025-06-21
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:fzc8x_v1

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/fzc8x_v1

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