Don’t Panic: Population Projection is Not a Crystal Ball

Amanda Jean Stevenson, Shelley Clark, Jennifer Dowd, Alison Gemmill, Karen Benjamin Guzzo, Laura D. Lindberg, Sarah Hayford and Leslie Root

No mq978_v1, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: Population panic – worries about “depopulation” linked to low birth rates – has become pervasive, with dire predictions in both the short and long term. Yet demographers like us – experts who explicitly study population size, composition, and structure – are generally not highly concerned. Why is this? It’s because we understand the strengths and limitations of population projections. Projections can accurately describe how populations will change if we know future birth, death, and migration rates. But demographers are well aware that they don’t have a crystal ball – we can't fully anticipate economic shifts, political changes, global events, or how future generations will respond to their changing worlds. That’s why the farther we project from the present, the less accurate those projections are likely to be.

Date: 2025-08-20
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:mq978_v1

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/mq978_v1

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