The Non-Binarity of Artificial Intelligence Global Competition: 2018-2025

Wiebke Dorfs, Maximilian Hampel and Joanna J. Bryson
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Joanna J. Bryson: Hertie School

No nk7ja_v1, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: Technological progress plays a crucial role in international relations. In particular, innovation has long been theorized as instrumental to power transitions. It is therefore unsurprising that the return of China as a global superpower and its technological advances has triggered considerable discussion. One narrative that has emerged is that of a binary "AI Cold War" competition between China and the US, similar to the 1947-1991 competition between nuclear superpowers. Another though is that the digital and information revolutions should facilitate technology and therefore power diffusion. Here we examine the claim of a binary competition, examining the state and trajectory of global AI competition for the years 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025. We use AI patents defended globally in the WIPO database and the market capitalization of the companies holding them as proxies for innovation and market power. We find that the binary narrative underestimates the strength of other actors globally, notably but not exclusively the European Union and Japan. These are comparable to China, and on the innovation metric with the US. In terms of market power, the US is a significant outlier, with an order of magnitude more capital concentration. Our research therefore indicates that any binary AI cold war narrative is not data-led.

Date: 2026-09-05
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:nk7ja_v1

DOI: 10.31235/osf.io/nk7ja_v1

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