Pragmatism and Probability: Re-examining Keynes’s thinking on probability

Bradley W. Bateman

No ry3tb_v1, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: As we celebrate the centenary of John Maynard Keynes’s Treatise on Probability (1921), we are still faced with unresolved, fundamental questions about his foray into the philosophy of probability. One of these unresolved questions concerns whether Keynes (1931) later changed his mind in response to intense criticism from Frank Ramsey (1922,1931) and abandoned the logical theory of probability. The purpose of this essay is to argue that Ramsey had an even wider influence on Keynes’s work than has been recognized, and that this influence was not just on his philosophy of probability, but also on his economics. Understood in this fuller context, it seems even more clear that Keynes embraced and built upon Ramsey’s subjective theory of probability in The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money (1936).

Date: 2022-12-10
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:ry3tb_v1

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/ry3tb_v1

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