Farmer-led innovations, government readiness, and agricultural diversification are key to prevent future food systems crises

Thomas Cherico Wanger, Shakuntala Haraksingh Thilsted, Dong Sheng, Joachim von Braun, Shenggen Fan and Jean-Francois Soussana

No s5kcx_v1, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: Climate, economic shocks, and conflicts destabilize food systems and undermine all aspects of food security. Between 2016 and 2025, the level of food insecurity rose by 153%, primarily driven by droughts until 2019, then by the COVID 19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. These tensions are amplified in face of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, where the USA and Israel attack on Iran led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 25% of global oil supply pass. Currently, 40% of petrochemicals and 15% of fossil fuels are now used in food systems for pesticide production, plastic packaging, and maintaining long haul cold chains. Disruptions to the flow of 30% of global fertilizer supply and 20% of liquefied natural gas, a key fertilizer feedstock, together with damage to infrastructure in exporting countries, are likely to constrain fertilizer availability for years to come. This will leave farmers in the 2026 crop growing season unable to have sufficient inputs and use their machinery for planting and harvesting. Immediate effects of the Iran war may be felt in vulnerable regions of the world already, with full ramifications manifesting in 2027, through increased food prices and food insecurity globally. Here, we argue that food systems dependence on fertilizer inputs can be generally reduced by enabling farmer-led adoption of diversified systems (e.g., legume rotations, agroforestry, biofertilizers and precision nutrient use) and locking in structural change through simultaneous government action. This is a critical addition to the currently dominating policy debate, where the argument is on fertilizers as strategic food-security infrastructure, with buffer reserves, low-carbon ammonia and tighter nutrient management.

Date: 2026-07-02
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:s5kcx_v1

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/s5kcx_v1

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