Have autocrats governed for the long term?

Emanuele Millemaci, Fabio Monteforte and Jonathan Temple

No w8khb, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: The short answer is: probably not. We infer the priorities of national governments from observed outcomes, constructing a statistical proxy for long-term orientation. Using panel data, we show that our measure of long-term orientation Granger-causes public investment. We then show that its distribution under democracy first-order stochastically dominates its distribution under autocracy. This suggests that variation in long-term orientation is not a good candidate to explain the ‘autocratic gamble’ – the well-known tendency for growth rates to vary more widely across autocracies than across democracies. The true sources of the autocratic gamble remain a conundrum.

Date: 2023-12-23
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:w8khb

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/w8khb

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