Revisiting Polarization in Brazil: Evidence from Public Opinion Data

Joao Feres
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Joao Feres: State University of Rio de Janeiro (UERJ)

No xkaqu_v1, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: The notion of polarization has become a key lens for understanding Brazilian politics, particularly after Jair Bolsonaro’s 2018 presidential victory and his subsequent four-year administration. Many researchers maintain that Brazil is experiencing a rise in polarization, often described as either firmly ideological or as a growing preference for emotionally charged choices rather than rational ones. Some recent scholarship goes further, suggesting that polarization in the country has taken on a social dimension, with supporters of Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva increasingly avoiding direct contact with political opponents. This study critically examines such portrayals of extreme polarization. Drawing on data from the 2022 Brazilian Electoral Study (ESEB), it employs logistic regression with predicted probabilities, Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA), and k-modes cluster analysis to investigate how attitudes, values, policy preferences, and demographic factors shape political divisions in Brazil. The optimal number of clusters was determined through both the Elbow method and the Gap Statistic, applied consistently using the k-modes dissimilarity criterion. The findings indicate that, while certain policy issues do generate disagreement, broader differences in values and policy stances between Bolsonaro and Lula supporters are more moderate than often assumed. The four-cluster solution reveals a nuanced structure of political opinion that does not conform to a simple bipolar model. Instead of an entrenched form of polarization defined by mutual avoidance and emotional hostility, the data suggest more measured and multidimensional political differences, with asymmetry strongly favoring the right.

Date: 2026-06-07
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:xkaqu_v1

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/xkaqu_v1

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