 Temperature variability and long-run economic developmentNo xvucn, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science Abstract: This study estimates causal effects of temperature variability on long-run economic development, which are not accounted for in most estimates of the costs of future climate change. For identification I use a novel research design based on spatial first-differences. Economic activity is proxied by nightlights. Informed by the underlying physical mechanisms, I distinguish between day-to-day, seasonal, and interannual variability. The results suggest an economically large and statistically significant negative effect of day-to-day variability on economic activity. Regarding seasonal variability, I find a smaller but also negative effect. The estimated effect of interannual variability is positive at low and negative at high temperatures. These effects are robust, they can be identified in urban and rural areas, and they cannot be explained with the spatial distribution of agriculture. The results suggest that temperature variability will add to the costs of anthropogenic climate change, especially in relatively warm and currently relatively poor regions. Date: 2021-05-01 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:xvucn Access Statistics for this paper More papers in SocArXiv from Center for Open Science |
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