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Climate Change and the Distribution of Agricultural Output

Francisco J M Costa, Fabien Forge, Jason Garred () and João Paulo Pessoa
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Francisco J M Costa: FGV EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance

No yxzfu, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: This paper uses a multi-run climate projection model to examine the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of agricultural outcomes in India. Extreme weather draws resulting in low revenues (1-in-100-year events) are projected to become the norm, increasing by 53 to 88 percentage points by the end of the 21st century. As a result, Indian farmers will face a 16% to 33% decline in mean revenue over the course of the century, presenting a more urgent problem than changes in yield variability. Analysis using a structural general equilibrium model suggests consequences of a similar magnitude for welfare.

Date: 2020-01-29
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-env
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Working Paper: Climate Change and the Distribution of Agricultural Output (2020) Downloads
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DOI: 10.31219/

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