Assessing the Impacts of Deeper Trade Reform in Vietnam in a General Equilibrium Framework

To Minh Thu and Hiro Lee
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To Minh Thu: Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam, Hanoi, Vietnam

No 17E005, OSIPP Discussion Paper from Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University

Abstract: Vietnam is on the way to undertake deeper trade liberalisation, including both tariff reductions and reforms in other trade-related areas. In this paper, the impacts of Vietnam’s trade reform on its economic welfare and sectoral adjustments are assessed using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We consider the effects of goods and services trade liberalisation, an increase in foreign direct investment inflows, a reduction in administrative and technical barriers to trade, and a reduction in the trade and transport margins. When all effects are combined, Vietnam’s economic welfare is projected to increase by 8.4 per cent in 2020 compared with the baseline. Many manufacturing sectors would expand, whereas agricultural, minerals and fuel sectors would contract. The output expansion is most significant in the textiles and wearing apparel sectors.

Keywords: Trade reform; economic welfare; sectoral adjustments; Vietnam; CGE model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 F15 F17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 35 pages
Date: 2017-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp, nep-int and nep-sea
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http://www.osipp.osaka-u.ac.jp/archives/DP/2017/DP2017E005.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Assessing the impacts of deeper trade reform in Vietnam in a general equilibrium framework (2014)
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