Non-Stationary Interest Rate Differentials and the Role of Monetary Policy

Philipp Matros () and Enzo Weber
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Philipp Matros: Universität Regensburg

No 293, Working Papers from Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies)

Abstract: The present work deals with a frequently detected failure of the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) - the absence of bivariate cointegration between domestic and foreign interest rates. We explain non-stationarity of the interest differential via central bank reactions to exchange rate variations. Thereby, the exchange rate in levels introduces an additional stochastic trend into the system. Trivariate cointegration between the interest rates and the exchange rate accounts for the missing stationarity property of the interest differential. We apply the concept to the case of Turkey and Europe,where we can validate the theoretical considerations by multivariate time series techniques.

Keywords: Uncovered Interest Rate Parity; Monetary Policy Rules; Cointegration; Vector-Error Correction Model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E44 F31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 22
Date: 2011-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mac and nep-mon
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Non-stationary Interest Rate Differentials and the Role of Monetary Policy (2014)
Working Paper: Non-Stationary Interest Rate Differentials and the Role of Monetary Policy (2010)
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