Shifting the 'goal posts': What is the optimal allocation of Super Rugby competition points?

Niven Winchester

No 715, Working Papers from University of Otago, Department of Economics

Abstract: Competition points are awarded in sports events to determine which participants qualify for the playoffs or to identify the champion. We use competition points to measure strength in a prediction model and choose competition points to maximise prediction accuracy. This allows us to determine the allocation of competition points that most appropriately rewards strong teams. Our analysis focuses on Super Rugby as the characteristics of this competition closely match our modelling assumptions. We find that the current allocation of competition points is not optimal and suggest an alternative. Our findings have implications for other competitions.

Keywords: Competition points; Nonlinear least squares; Sports predictions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31 pages
Date: 2007-11, Revised 2007-11
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