Money, Output and Inflation in the Longer Term: Major Industrial Countries, 1880-2001

Alfred Haug and William G. Dewald ()
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William G. Dewald: Department of Economics, Ohio State University

No 1013, Working Papers from University of Otago, Department of Economics

Abstract: We study how fluctuations in money growth correlate with fluctuations in real output growth and inflation. Using band-pass filters, we extract cycles from each time series that last 2 to 8 (business cycles) and 8 to 40 (longer-term cycles) years. We employ annual data, 1880-2001 without gaps, for eleven industrial countries. Fluctuations in money growth do not play a systematic role at business cycle frequencies. However, money growth leads or affects contemporaneously inflation, but not real output growth, in the longer run. Also, formal break tests indicate no structural changes for the longer-term money growth and inflation relationship, despite changes in policy regimes.

Keywords: Emerging markets; oil prices; exchange rates (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G15 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 25 pages
Date: 2010-09, Revised 2010-09
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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http://www.otago.ac.nz/economics/research/otago077139.pdf First version, 2010 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: MONEY, OUTPUT, AND INFLATION IN THE LONGER TERM: MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES, 1880–2001 (2012)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:otg:wpaper:1013

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