Does Consistency Predict Accuracy of Beliefs?: Economists Surveyed About PSA

Nathan Berg, G. Biele and Gerd Gigerenzer

No 1308, Working Papers from University of Otago, Department of Economics

Abstract: When economists' subjective beliefs about the sensitivity and positive predictive value of the Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) test are internally consistent (i.e., satisfying Bayes' Rule), their beliefs about prostate cancer risk are less accurate than among those with inconsistent beliefs. Using a loss function framework, we investigate but cannot find evidence that inconsistent beliefs lead to inaccuracy, different PSA decisions, or economic losses. Economists' PSA decisions appear to depend much more on the advice of doctors and family members than on beliefs about cancer risks and the pros/cons of PSA testing, which have little to no joint explanatory power.

Pages: 40 pages
Date: 2013-04, Revised 2013-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cbe and nep-upt
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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http://www.otago.ac.nz/economics/research/otago076642.pdf First version, 2013 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Does Consistency Predict Accuracy of Beliefs?: Economists Surveyed About PSA (2010)
Working Paper: Does consistency predict accuracy of beliefs?: Economists surveyed about PSA (2010)
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