Evaluating Time Series Models in Short and Long-Term Forecasting of Canadian Air Passenger Data

Emir Emiray and Gabriel Rodríguez
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Emir Emiray: Transport Canada

No 0306E, Working Papers from University of Ottawa, Department of Economics

Abstract: This paper uses six time series models to forecast seasonally unadjusted monthly data of Canadian enplaned/deplaned air passengers, for the domestic, transborder and international sectors. We find that forecasting performance of the models varies widely across series and forecast horizons. Our forecasting results are compared with forecasts published by Transport Canada’s Aviation Forecasting Division.

Keywords: Forecasts; Seasonal Unit Roots; ARIMA Models; Periodic Autoregressive Models; Structural Time Series Model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C2 C5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 46 pages
Date: 2003
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