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Climate Change and the Distribution of Agricultural Output

Francisco Costa, Fabien Forge, Jason Garred () and João Paulo Pessoa

No 2003E, Working Papers from University of Ottawa, Department of Economics

Abstract: This paper uses a multi-run climate projection model to examine the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of agricultural outcomes in India. Weather draws resulting in extremely low agricultural revenues (1-in-100-year events) are projected to become the norm, increasing by 53 to 88 percentage points by the end of the 21st century. As a result, Indian farmers will face a 16% to 33% decline in mean revenue over the course of the century, presenting a more urgent problem than changes in yield variability. Analysis using a structural general equilibrium model suggests consequences of a similar magnitude for welfare.

Keywords: climate change; agriculture; India; crop yield; volatility; extreme events (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q15 Q54 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 73 pages
Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-env and nep-ore
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ott:wpaper:2003e

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