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Climate Change and the Distribution of Agricultural Output

Francisco Costa, Fabien Forge, Jason Garred and João Paulo Pessoa

No 2003E, Working Papers from University of Ottawa, Department of Economics

Abstract: This paper uses a multi-run climate projection model to examine the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of agricultural outcomes in India. Weather draws resulting in extremely low agricultural revenues (1-in-100-year events) are projected to become the norm, increasing by 53 to 88 percentage points by the end of the 21st century. As a result, Indian farmers will face a 16% to 33% decline in mean revenue over the course of the century, presenting a more urgent problem than changes in yield variability. Analysis using a structural general equilibrium model suggests consequences of a similar magnitude for welfare.

Keywords: climate change; agriculture; India; crop yield; volatility; extreme events (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q15 Q54 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 73 pages
Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-env and nep-ore
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