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Seeds of Distrust: Conflict in Uganda

Dominic Rohner (), Mathias Thoenig () and Fabrizio Zilibotti ()

No 78, OxCarre Working Papers from Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford

Abstract: We study the effect of civil conflict on social capital, focusing on the experience of Uganda during the last decade. Using individual and county-level data, we document large causal effects on trust and ethnic identity of an exogenous outburst of ethnic conflicts in 2002-05. We exploit two waves of survey data from Afrobarometer 2000 and 2008, including information on socioeconomic characteristics at the individual level, and geo-referenced measures of fighting events from ACLED. Our identification strategy exploits variations in the intensity of fighting both in the spatial and cross-ethnic dimensions. We find that more intense fighting decreases generalized trust and increases ethnic identity. The effects are quantitatively large and robust to a number of control variables, alternative measures of violence, and different statistical techniques involving ethnic and spatial fixed effects and instrumental variables. We also document that the post-war effects of ethnic violence depend on the ethnic fractionalization. Fighting has a negative e¤ect on the economic situation in highly fractionalized counties, but has no effect in less fractionalized counties. Our findings are consistent with the existence of a self-reinforcing process between conflicts and ethnic cleavages.

Keywords: conflict; Uganda; seeds of distrust; ethnic conflicts; ACLED; cross-ethnic (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D74 Q34 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-afr, nep-dem, nep-dev, nep-evo and nep-soc
Date: 2012
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Related works:
Journal Article: Seeds of distrust: conflict in Uganda (2013) Downloads
Working Paper: Seeds of Distrust: Conflict in Uganda (2012) Downloads
Working Paper: Seeds of Distrust: Conflict in Uganda (2012) Downloads
Working Paper: Seeds of distrust: Conflict in Uganda (2011) Downloads
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oxf:oxcrwp:078

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