Implications for Indonesia of Asia's Rise in the Global Economy

Kym Anderson and Anna Strutt

Departmental Working Papers from The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics

Abstract: This paper projects Indonesia's production and trade patterns to 2020 and 2030 in the course of global economic development under various growth and policy scenarios. We employ the GTAP model and Version 8.1 of the GTAP database, along with supplementary data from a range of sources to support projections of the global economy. The baseline projection assumes trade-related policies do not change in each region but that endowments and real GDP do change, at exogenously selected rates. This enables us to analyse how potential global changes may impact the Indonesian economy over this and the next decade. We then consider the impacts of three potential policy reforms by 2020: an increase in global rice exports, as might be associated with the opening of Myanmar; Indonesia's recently-imposed export taxes on unprocessed primary products; and implementation of Indonesia's new Food Law.

Keywords: Global economy-wide model projections; Indonesian economic growth and structural change; Food policy; Export taxes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D58 F13 F15 F17 Q17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 43 pages
Date: 2014
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-int and nep-sea
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Journal Article: Implications for Indonesia of Asia's Rise in the Global Economy (2015)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pas:papers:2014-10

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