Is there a link between unemployment and criminality in the us economy? Further evidence

Firouz Fallahi and Gabriel Rodríguez

No 2010-285, Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers from Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú

Abstract: Using Markov-Switching models, this paper studies the existence of a relationship between the unemployment rate and four different types of crimes in the U.S. economy. After it, using the non-parametric Concordance Index of Harding and Pagan (2002, 2006), the correlation between the cycles of unemployment rate and crime variables is determined. Results confirm that there is no significant relationship between the unemployment rate, burglary and motor-vehicle theft. However, the unemployment rate has a significant relationship with robbery and larceny. The contemporaneous relationship is positive for robbery and negative for larceny. However, it turns to be positive between the lagged values of the unemployment rate and larceny.

Keywords: Markov-Switching Models; Cycles; Unemployment; Crime. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 K14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 29 pages
Date: 2010
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00285

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