Forecasting Daily Air Arrivals to Mallorca Island Using Nearest Neighbor Methods

Marcos Álvarez Díaz () and Josep Mateu Sbert ()

No 2007/08, CRE Working Papers (Documents de treball del CRE) from Centre de Recerca Econòmica (UIB ·"Sa Nostra")

Abstract: This paper investigates the feasibility of using different generalizations of the nearest neighbor method in a tourism forecasting problem. The method is widely employed in different fields of research but, inexplicably, it is practically unknown in tourism forecasting. Specifically, the method is applied to anticipate the tourism demand to Mallorca Island, approximated by the number of daily arrivals. The predictive analysis is not only centered in knowing the exact value of arrivals (point prediction), but also in anticipating the direction of the sign movement (sign prediction). Furthermore, this study also offers further evidence on a subject scarcely treated in tourism economics: the searching of predictable non-linear dynamics. The results encourage the use of this technique and reveal the existence of a non-linear seasonal effect in the analyzed tourism time series.

Keywords: Tourism Forecasting; Nearest Neighbor Methods; Surrogate Data Method (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 20 pages
Date: 2007-01, Revised 2007-01
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Published in 'Documents de Treball CRE', January 2007, pages 1-20

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.cre.sanostra.es/internet/cre.nsf/pernom ... t/$FILE/dt2007_8.pdf (application/pdf)
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 500 Can't connect to www.cre.sanostra.es:80 (No such host is known. )

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pdm:wpaper:2007/08

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CRE Working Papers (Documents de treball del CRE) from Centre de Recerca Econòmica (UIB ·"Sa Nostra") Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Centre de Recerca Econòmica (UIB ·"Sa Nostra") ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).