EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Short- and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on the growth causes of China-Germany trade in agri-food products

Zhichao Guo (), Yuanhua Feng () and Xiangyong Tan ()
Additional contact information
Xiangyong Tan: China Agricultural Universtity, Beijing Technology and Business University

No 32, Working Papers CIE from Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics

Abstract: This paper focuses on a systematic quantitative discussion of the short- and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on international trade in a two-stage framework. Firstly, procedures based on dummy variables are proposed to detect structural breaks, types and sizes of jumps caused by such events. Then we propose to apply a hierarchical CMS (Constant Market Share) model to all sub-periods defined by the detected change points to study the short- and long-term impact of those events on growth causes. Application to China-Germany trade in agri-food products shows that China’s accession to WTO had a negative short-term impact on corresponding series. But its long-term impact on China’s export competitiveness was definitely positive. The short-term impact of the EU’s CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) reform on Germany’s exports to China was also negative. Its long-term impact on export competitiveness was sometimes positive and sometimes negative. The financial crisis of 2008 caused a significant reduction of China’s agri-food exports to Germany. But Germany’s exports to China in 2009 were not affected by the financial crisis as much.

Keywords: Growth causes of agri-food trade; the CMS model; the EU’s CAP reform; China’s accession to WTO; financial crisis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q17 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 23 pages
Date: 2010-11
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://groups.uni-paderborn.de/wp-wiwi/RePEc/pdf/ciepap/WP32.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Short- and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on the growth causes of China–Germany trade in agri-food products (2011) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pdn:ciepap:32

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers CIE from Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by WP-WiWi-Info (). This e-mail address is bad, please contact .

 
Page updated 2020-06-25
Handle: RePEc:pdn:ciepap:32