Short- and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on the growth causes of China-Germany trade in agri-food products
Zhichao Guo (),
Yuanhua Feng () and
Xiangyong Tan ()
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Xiangyong Tan: China Agricultural Universtity, Beijing Technology and Business University
No 32, Working Papers CIE from Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics
This paper focuses on a systematic quantitative discussion of the short- and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on international trade in a two-stage framework. Firstly, procedures based on dummy variables are proposed to detect structural breaks, types and sizes of jumps caused by such events. Then we propose to apply a hierarchical CMS (Constant Market Share) model to all sub-periods defined by the detected change points to study the short- and long-term impact of those events on growth causes. Application to China-Germany trade in agri-food products shows that China’s accession to WTO had a negative short-term impact on corresponding series. But its long-term impact on China’s export competitiveness was definitely positive. The short-term impact of the EU’s CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) reform on Germany’s exports to China was also negative. Its long-term impact on export competitiveness was sometimes positive and sometimes negative. The financial crisis of 2008 caused a significant reduction of China’s agri-food exports to Germany. But Germany’s exports to China in 2009 were not affected by the financial crisis as much.
Keywords: Growth causes of agri-food trade; the CMS model; the EU’s CAP reform; China’s accession to WTO; financial crisis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q17 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 23 pages
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Journal Article: Short- and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on the growth causes of China–Germany trade in agri-food products (2011)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pdn:ciepap:32
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