Low Fertility, Ageing Buildings, and School Congestion in the Philippines: Tailwinds, Headwinds, and Some Policy Options

Michael R.M. Abrigo, Edmar E. Lingatong, Charlotte Marjorie L. Relos, Tania Dew S. Perez, Noel Angelo M. Quejada, Erwin Doroteo Justien C. Daga, Katha Ma-i Estopace, Jesusa L. Paquibot and Dianne Stephanie A. Gavan

No DP 2025-10, Discussion Papers from Philippine Institute for Development Studies

Abstract: This study estimates future demand for public school classrooms using new projections of the school-age children population for 82 provinces and 33 urbanized cities in the Philippines up to 2060. A return to replacement-level fertility from the current total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.9 is expected to ease demand for public school classrooms, except in Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, where the population of school-age children is projected to continue increasing. A below-replacement TFR will likely lead to a greater reduction in classroom congestion in public schools. However, significant school infrastructure backlogs and the aging of existing school buildings are expected to remain important issues in the future, despite potential benefits from low fertility. The study also highlights potential contributing factors to current classroom congestion. Comments on this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph.

Keywords: school infrastructure; low fertility; population projection (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 34
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-10

DOI: 10.62986/dp2025.10

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