Capturing the Middle East Recovery

Nasir Iqbal
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Nasir Iqbal: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad

No 2026:67, PIDE Policy View Point from Pakistan Institute of Development Economics

Abstract: From Labour Export to Contract Export: A Costed, Self-Enforcing National Mission to Operationalise the Exports Pillar of Uraan Pakistan Wars devastate economies, and recovery rewrites economic geography. The relationship between Pakistan and the Gulf is real but asymmetric, grounded in remittances, energy imports, deposits, and goodwill rather than in contracts, firms, and systems. In periods of regional stability, Pakistan breathes, but in periods of instability, the balance of payments, inflation, and external financing tighten. The strategic objective should shift from surviving the Middle East crisis to capitalising on the recovery in the Middle East. There is much at stake, and much of it can be measured. Reconstruction after conflict in Gaza (US$71bn over five years), Syria (US$216bn) and Lebanon (US$11bn) goes hand in hand with the Gulf region's giga-project pipeline, which includes the ambitious Saudi Vision 2030 program, costing up to US$1.1-1.3tn, and US$1.5tn of unawarded construction projects, the largest in the world. Pakistan earns the wages of its workers but nothing close to the project margin, as exports of goods to the GCC amounted to only US$3.79bn, compared with imports worth US$17.9bn.

Pages: 14 pages
Date: 2026
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