Border Closures, Conflict, and the Trade of Perishable Goods

Farah Naz and Anjeela Khurram
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Farah Naz: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad
Anjeela Khurram: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad

No 2026:71, PIDE Policy View Point from Pakistan Institute of Development Economics

Abstract: Introduction The Pak-Afghan trade corridor has long served as a critical channel for the exchange of perishable commodities, linking producers, traders, and consumers across both economies. In recent years, however, recurring border closures driven by security concerns and geopolitical tensions have increasingly disrupted this flow, particularly affecting time-sensitive goods such as fruits and vegetables (Rlung, 2024). Given the highly perishable nature of these commodities, even short delays lead to significant spoilage, income losses, and market distortions. These disruptions not only affect bilateral trade volumes but also create price volatility, supply-demand imbalances, and uncertainty across domestic markets (Qasim, 2025). Moreover, the economic costs extend beyond the immediate losses, influencing the production decisions, trade relationships, and food security outcomes over time (Herbert and Idris, 2024). PIDE's recent research on Pak-Afghan bilateral and transit trade has clearly mentioned the decline in trade and the need for confidence building to reverse it (Khan and Iqbal, 2025). This policy viewpoint is built on the extant work by particularly focusing on border closure from October 2025 onwards. It marked the objective of the study as to see how this border closure affects the trade and value chain of perishable commodities between two countries and to identify the practical yet policy pathways that can help this trade to remain continue in future episodes of geopolitical conflict. The analysis stands on trade statistics, media reporting, and a consultation with senior custom official. This study is also based on the institutional study on trade relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan, provided by Khan and Iqbal (2025), according to which regular border management, confidence-building measures and institutional coordination are vital in maintaining bilateral trade under political uncertainty. The current Policy Viewpoint expands upon this conversation by specifically discussing the influence of border closures on the trade of perishable commodities. The analysis is merely an indicative preliminary study, pointing out the need for additional research to validate the figures provided above. In addition, the analysis does not assume that all market-related processes are attributed to border closures alone. It explores how the border disruptions have influenced other macro-economic factors affecting bilateral trade.

Pages: 11 pages
Date: 2026
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